January 2007 - Operating System Vulnerability Scorecard
Tue, 2007-02-27 20:51
Topic(s):

Starting today, I plan on posting a monthly vulnerability scorecard for common server and workstation Operating System (OS) products.  I’m going to keep these scorecards pretty clean of discussion, but you can review my methodology, sources and assumptions on this page.  When folks have interesting feedback, comments or questions, I’ll consider starting separate posts for discussion and those can become references for future scorecards.

For workstation OSes, the product vulnerabilities analyzed include those applying to Windows Vista, Windows XP SP2, a subset of Red Hat Enterprise Linux 4 WS (rhel4ws), a subset of Ubuntu 6.06 LTS, and Mac OS Xv10.  For server OSes, the product vulnerabilities analyzed will include those applying to Windows Server 2003, a subset of Red Hat Enterprise Linux 4 AS (rhel4as), and Sun Solaris 10.  Note that the analysis for the Linux distributions excludes many optional packages in order to define more comparable product builds.  See Methodology, Sources and Assumptions for more details.

For each of the server and workstation OSes, the charts use a stacked barchart with highest severity vulnerabilities on the bottom and lowest severity on the top.  This allows an easy visual comparison if readers just want to compare just High severity, High + Medium severity, desiring to exclude lower severity vulnerabilities from comparison.

Workstation OS Vulnerability Charts

By workstation OS, I mean an operating system product that forms the basis for a computer users normal day-to-day computer-based activity, such as is comparable to Windows XP or Mac OS X, including a graphical windowing system and Internet browser, but excluding higher level applications such as Word, Excel or Powerpoint (which do not ship with Windows).

The first chart represents the total High, Medium and Low severity issues fixed for the various products over the past 3 months, ending in January 2007. Note that Windows Vista has only been available to business customers for 2 of those 3 months, having been released at the end of November. Examining the 3-month chart, we see that the Windows OS had the lowest number of total and High severity vulnerabilities fixed.

 Workstation OS - 3 Month Vuln Scorecard : Nov06 - Jan07

Next to get a view of 2007 year-to-date, we have a chart that just includes the vulnerabilities fixed for the products during January 2007. (In the next scorecard post, it will include January and February)

Workstation OS - YTD Vuln Scorecard : Jan07

The results are largely self-explanatory, but I will note that for those that contend the Low severity issues for a product might not matter, one can exclude either the green or green and yellow portions as desired.

Server OS Vulnerability Charts

For server OSes, I am considering products that form the basis for a server in the network that would not typically be a day-to-day workstation for an individual user.  This means that, where possible, it is assumed that an administrator would choose not to install optional components like the graphical windowing system, Internet browser and so on.  On Windows Server 2003, those components are counted, since the user does not have an option to not install them.

Examining the 3-month chart, we see that, similar to the Workstations, the Windows platform has had to fix less total and less High severity issues than the other platforms.

Server OS - 3 Month Vuln Scorecard : Nov06 - Jan07
 
Next, looking at how 2007 is starting off for Server OSes, we see similar results to the 3-month view, but without the smoothing that as time provides to cumulative totals over longer periods of time.

Server OS - YTD Vuln Scorecard : Jan07

 Vulnerability != Risk

Security professionals will correctly note that vulnerabilities represent only part of the security picture, with the risk equation also needing an understanding of the potential threats and value of the information at risk.  However, number and quality of attackers are elements largely orthogonal to factors that vendors have ability to influence.  Vulnerabilities, on the other hand, are a factor that vendors can influence directly by investing in process, testing and other best practice Q&A techniques to reduce bugs and raise quality of shipping products.

To put it into user terms, imagine that you are a CSO tasked with protecting some valuable company information on a company server.  You assume that the information is the target and that potential attackers will attempt to attack whichever platform you select to host the information.  In that case, the threat and value of the information is fixed, and the risk equation depends primarily on the vulnerability of the system you select (until you implement further mitigating actions).

Regards ~ Jeff

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Sat, 2007-03-17 02:21
Meaningless drivel.
By Anonymous

Without looking at outstanding vulnerabilities, all you're measuring is ... well, nothing really. The only thing these charts do is make you popular with your employer, as they toe the party line (and then some!) and let people assume that people view a "smaller" bar with "fewer" vulnerabilities.

Number of vulnerabilities fixed means nothing unless you also publish number of vulnerabilities outstanding. Number of vulnerabilities is also no indicator of actual risk. Nor is it an indicator of ... anything really. Not all by itself.

Statistically, your "method" is meaningless. From a security perspective, in terms of offering any useful information, your "methodology" is a joke. Sorry, but you have absolutely no credibility left here. The only credibility you might have is with Microsoft marketing. You might want to see if they are hiring.

Tue, 2007-03-20 17:24
re: Drivel
By Anonymous

I would say your anonymous post establishes your crediblity even more than mine.

I agree with a small kernel of your comment - you do need to have a clear view of disclosed, but unpatched issues to have a full picture.

However, that does not mean that looking at fixed issues tell you nothing. In fact, if you assume the vendors studied *eventually* fix all disclosed issues, then at worst the statistics are delayed in time - and a different time per vendor, depending on their average "time to fix".

I've done some preparatory work on tracking disclosed, but unfixed issues, so I look forward to improving the full picture as we move forward.

Sat, 2007-03-17 02:20
We found the problem
By Anonymous

No wonder Windows has so many Security problems they aren't issuing fixes for all the vulnerabilities. Maybe they should take a lessen from Ubuntu, Redhat, and Solaris. I guess that would'nt be a good move though making themselves have to work extra and cutting themselves out of the antivirus market they are trying so hard to get into.

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Fri, 2007-03-16 23:10
What does this prove?
By Anonymous

These figures cannot measure vulnerability, since VULNERABILITY != (vulns fixed). If you ignore this, you're simply ASSUMING. The least vulnerable system definitely is not the one with the least fixed vulnerabilities!

Why?

ISSUES FIXED != OVERALL ISSUES != REMAINING ISSUES

Fundamentally, the most vulnerable operating system is simply the one that currently has the most defects and "features" that could be exploited in terms of intrusion or denial-of-service. (note: not the system that has the most successful attacks against it).

Sure, there could be varations in rating, e.g. remote exploits > local exploits.

I'm sorry, but I find you charts meaningless, since "vulnerabilities fixed" only makes sense as a relational value.

-Niel

PS: Ubuntu LTS 6.06? Why not 6.10?

Tue, 2007-03-20 17:28
re: What does this prove
By Anonymous

I don't disagree that providing numbers of "remaining issues" would be a fuller picture. I'd love to see your proposed methodology for doing this, as I've been working on just that issue. Secunia, for example, won't commit to tracking it for Linux distributions because of the massive amount of work required to validate against all this different distros - so, they default to tracking fixed issues after the fact.

I think we can do better than that.

Ubuntu LTS, because I only track and compare releases for which the vendors offer Enterprise support or Long-term support, in Ubuntu terms. The don't commit to LTS for 6.10.

Fri, 2007-03-16 19:44
OS Vulerability
By Anonymous

I'm confused about these charts. It seems to me that if the numbers in the graphs are to be meaningful, you need to first publish and graph the total number of reported vulnerabilities for each platform (or at least add the total number of vulnerabilities for each to these charts). Without this essential context, the number of vulnerabilities fixed is irrelevant. Without the perspective of context, all the OS's will always appear to be similar.

Also, the numbers are meaningless if no one downloads and installs them. So, how do you go about reporting (or estimating) the number (or percentage) of users on each platform who actually have applied the fixes?

Fri, 2007-03-16 19:10
What about FreeBSD?
By Anonymous

What about an operating system that hosts so many millions of web sites? Doesn't count?

Fri, 2007-03-16 19:31
FreeBSD
By Anonymous

Agreed.

From November, 2006 to March 16, 2007, FreeBSD has only issued 5 security advisories:

FreeBSD-SA-06:24
FreeBSD-SA-06:25
FreeBSD-SA-06:26
FreeBSD-SA-07:01
FreeBSD-SA-07:02

http://www.freebsd.org/security/

And arguably the most secure OS on the planet, OpenBSD, has released 10 security updates during almost the exact same time period (OpenBSD 4.0 was released on November 1, 2006). Here is their errata:

http://openbsd.org/errata40.html

Fri, 2007-03-16 20:19
RE: FreeBSD
By Anonymous

And arguably the most secure OS on the planet, OpenBSD, has released 10 security updates during almost the exact same time period (OpenBSD 4.0 was released on November 1, 2006). Here is their errata:

http://openbsd.org/errata40.html

7 could be considered security updates. Updating to handle the newer, more retarded, DST should not be considered a security update.

Fri, 2007-03-16 20:36
Quite right. I was being
By Anonymous

Quite right. I was being "generous," if you will. Whether Free or OpenBSD had 5, 7, or 10 security updates during this time period, they are all far less than the number of such updates to the other OS's mentioned above. Granted, simply looking at the number of updates without any other context is pretty silly, but that's what the original article does so I'm trying to do an apple-to-apples comparison, even if it's relatively meaningless. :)

Fri, 2007-03-16 20:31
Quite right. I was being
By Anonymous

Quite right. I was being "generous," if you will. Whether Free or OpenBSD had 5, 7, or 10 security updates during this time period, they are all far less than the number of such updates to the other OS's mentioned above. Granted, simply looking at the number of updates without any other context is pretty silly, but that's what the original article does so I'm trying to do an apple-to-apples comparison, even if it's relatively meaningless. :)

Wed, 2007-03-07 16:35
Different Scopes
By Anonymous

You need to consider exactly what you are considering for each scope. For the RH and Ubuntu, you have an OS plus a slew of applications (examples: apache, evolution, mozilla/firefox, gaim, open office). For XP and 2003, it's the OS with a few small applications (IE, IIS come to mind). OSX lies somewhere in the middle of that.

Wed, 2007-03-07 22:56
re: Different Scopes

I do consider that, actually.  You should read the Methodology page which I point folks to, in order to get the full details.
For example, for RH I explicitly filter out many optional packages including Apache, Evolution, and OpenOffice.  I leave Firefox since it is comparable to IE.
In reality, OSes will never be completely Apple-to-apple, even Windows Vista versus Windows XP versus Windows 2000.  However, I don't exclude Defender from Vista just because XP doesn't have an equivalent shipping component.  Similarly, other vendors make choices about what "value", feature or component gets bundled in and (perhaps) installed by default.  I believe the vendor gets to define what it ships in the product and then be held accountable for that product having vulns (or not).
However, because it is such a common objection/concern, I completed an effort to install the minimal features on RHEL, along with only a few extra components that are very commonly used components and then record what those components are, so I could filter to only include those and exclude others.

Tue, 2007-03-13 03:59
Konqueror
By Anonymous

I would more inclined to compare Konqueror over firefox as in most cases it is the default browser.

Tue, 2007-03-06 11:55
time etc
By Anonymous

Interesting. I was just going to ask you to add time-of-exposure but then I saw that you already had answered that request.

Most of my other questions were answered on the methodology page.

Btw, is it Apple OS 10.4 that you are tracking or which incarnation of OS X is it? Not the total of all of them I hope.

I regularly follow your blog. Keep up the good work! :)

/Olle

Wed, 2007-02-28 18:34
Disclosure
By Anonymous

Maybe I missed something - and I hope you will point it out if I have - but I did not see anything in your analysis or methodology that might address differences - if any - in disclosure policies for each O/S. Specifically, have you accounted for whether any one of these O/S vendors has any tend to withold wide public notification of vulnerabilities (and fixes for them)?

Wed, 2007-02-28 21:24
Re: Disclosure

Great question.  The short answer is that these metrics alone can't tell if vendor scores are low because of great performance or because they are burying issues.
On the other hand, I would say that the disclosure policy does not matter with respect to measuring customer risk or exposure, as long as you have a long enough record and evidence to reasonably believe that the vendors do care about their security reputation and are fixing issues over time.  The "over time" part is key of course.  Say there is a vendor that is extreme and hold vulnerabilities for 2 years before releasing a fix as standard policy.  In the short term of monthly scorecards, this vendor might look really good for quite a while until the 2 years passes, at which time they'd look horrible. 
This leads to some questions of how we get a full picture, in terms of measuring the vendors - is there a different measurement that would show that the vendor was simply choosing not to patch, at the expense of customer risk?  Yes.  We can look at the numbers of publicly disclosed, but unpatched issues as a complementary metric to fixed issues.  In the case of our theoritical "2 year fix" vendor, it might show that they have hundreds of publicly disclosed, but unpatched issues for long periods of time.  Similarly, we can measure days-of-risk or days-of-exposure, which would capture information about how long the vendor leaves customers exposed, on average.
Note that these measurements will implicitly take into account disclosure policy negatives and benefits.  If somehow, magically, a vendor gets researchers to disclose quietly to them and wait for public disclosure for 2 years, then the vendor metric will benefit to the same degree that customer risk is reduced.  I don't see that as very sustainable though - if the vendor holds issues that long, then researchers are likely to stop cooperating with the vendor and disclosing issues publicly much sooner.  And when that happens, then metrics measuring "unpatched' issues and days-of-risk will suffer comparably.
Don't get me wrong, different disclosure policies will affect the metrics.  A policy, combined with vendor baviour,  that results in the disclosure of a vulnerability before a mitigation is available might pressure a vendor, but that pressure occurs at the expense of increased risk to customers.  Since I define "good results" as optimized towards reducing customer risk, good scores on my metrics will reflect that. 
FYI, I do intend to analyze and publish "unpatched" and days-of-risk metrics as well, so that a fuller picture can be created.
~ Jeff

Sat, 2007-03-03 17:48
No reply (Re: Disclosure)
By Anonymous

So what can I deduce from the fact that my response has not been posted? To help you recall, I countered your point on disclosure policy not impacting risk.

I would appreciate some explanation, else I may be forced to speculate on other forums as to why only certain posts seem to make it onto your blog.

A little disclosure might do you good here... ;)

Mon, 2007-03-05 19:31
re: No reply
By Anonymous

I don't filter comments here, they post directly (except for things like the mortgage spam above - which I will be deleting this morning.)

I'd love to see your reply, but haven't yet. I was in Las Vegas and not logged on from Friday until this morning.

If your response wasn't posted, then I can only guess that there was some web issue posting it up.

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